国际原油价格波动对国内农产品价格的传导作用量化分析——基于通径分析

The Transmission of International Crude Oil Price Fluctuations to Domestic Prices of Agricultural Product Based on Path Analysis

国际原油价格波动对国内农产品价格不仅有直接影响,而且有间接传导效应。借助国际货币基金组织、国家统计局等提供的数据,在控制农业生产成本、货币供应量和城镇居民收入3个变量的条件下,本文构建了通径分析模型,测算出2000年1月-2013年6月国际原油价格对国内农产品价格的直接作用和间接作用大小。结果表明,国际油价和国内农产品价格的相关系数为0.896,呈显著正相关,但国际原油价格对国内农产品价格的直接作用很小,仅为0.046,这意味着两者之间存在间接传导效应。其间接传导主要是通过农业生产成本和货币供应量两种途径来实现,间接通径系数分别为0.475、0.372,国际原油价格通过城镇居民收入传导给国内农产品价格的影响不明显。农业生产成本对农产品价格的直接影响在四个变量中最大,农业生产成本不仅是影响农产品价格的重要直接因素,也是国际原油价格通过其影响农产品价格的主要间接因素。这意味着,要严格控制农业生产成本的上涨,防止国际油价带来的成本增加而过度推高国内农产品价格。

After the outbreak of the international financial crisis and rise in crude oil prices,the impact of international crude oil prices on the prices of agricultural products in China is gradually expanding. Fluctuation in international crude oil prices not only has a direct impact on domestic prices of agricultural product,but has an indirect transmission mechanism on the domestic prices of agricultural products. Using data provided by the International Monetary Fund and National Bureau of Statistics,this article constructs a path analysis model to calculate the direct and indirect impacts of international oil prices from January 2000 to June 2013. Agricultural production costs,money supply and urban residents' income are controlled. We found that the correlation coefficient of international oil prices and domestic agricultural prices is 0.896 and significant. However,the international oil price has very little direct effect on the prices of agricultural products. The direct path coefficient between them is only 0.046,which means that there is an indirect conduction between the international oil price and domestic agricultural prices. The main pathways are agricultural production cost and money supply. The indirect path coefficient of the international crude oil prices by agricultural production costs to domestic agricultural prices is 0.475. The indirect path coefficient of international crude oil prices by money supply to domestic agricultural prices is 0.372. The conduction of urban residents' income is not obvious. The direct effect of agricultural production cost is the largest of the four variables. Agricultural production cost is not only an important direct factor,but a major factor through which international oil price conducted to the prices of agricultural products. These data mean that we must strictly control rising agricultural production costs in order to prevent increases driven by the international oil prices excessively inflating domestic agricultural prices.