中国省域碳强度集群的空间统计分析

Spatial Cluster Analysis of Provincial Carbon Intensity in China

论文使用空间统计分析中的全局Moran’s I、局域Moran’s I等指数对2001-2012年间我国碳强度的空间自相关性以及集群情况进行分析,发现全国省域碳强度的空间自相关性为正,东部地区内部省域的碳强度空间自相关现象非常明显,西部地区相对不明显,中部最弱。西部地区省份的碳强度多为高-高聚集,以甘肃、陕西、内蒙古3个地区为代表,东部地区多为低-低聚集,以浙江、福建、广东、江西4个地区为代表。论文还进一步结合资源禀赋、能源供需分布、产业结构和收入水平等对上述地区碳强度聚集的原因进行了分析,提出针对性的政策建议。

We use acknowledged spatial statistical techniques including the global MORAN'S I index and local MORAN'S I index to analyze spatial autocorrelation and spatial clustering of China's carbon intensity in 30 provinces(Tibet was not included because of a lack of data). The time span was 12 years,from 2001 to 2012. From a MORAN'S I scatter graph we found that China's national spatial autocorrelation of carbon intensity is positive. The positive spatial autocorrelation of the eastern region is obvious,followed by the western region,and the middle region. After calculating the local MORAN'S I index,we found that spatial high-high cluster provinces are mostly located in western China,such as Gansu,Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia. Spatial low-low cluster provinces are mostly located in eastern China,such as Zhejiang,Fujian and Guangdong. We found that there is time and spatial sequential cluster phenomenon of carbon intensity across China and the local cluster pattern is significant and fixed with certain space stability. After analyzing empirical results,we conducted further analysis of the carbon intensity cluster with integration of resource endowments,energy distribution of supply and industrial structure and income level. We suggest that the low-carbon pilot in high-high cluster provinces such as Gansu,Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia be promoted,to improve emission reduction targets in high-high cluster provinces.Linkage binding emission reduction mechanisms should be established. We need to consider the linkage effect of cluster regions in the division of dividing emission reduction targets and optimize the industrial structure and layout of high-high cluster provinces. Last,the development of new energy and renewable energy should be encouraged,and advanced industry to fulfill the national carbon emission reduction commitment should be considered.