上海市通勤高碳排放群体识别与特征分析

Identification and Analysis of High-Emission Commuter Groups in Shanghai

近年来,居民交通需求的扩大导致交通领域的碳排放量不断增加。而通勤作为交通出行的刚性需求,对碳排放有重要影响。基于2013年"上海居民生活碳消费状况调查"中的交通出行数据,本文测算并深入分析了上海市常住居民的日通勤碳排放量及分布情况。结果显示,上海市常住居民人均通勤碳排放量为1 213.9g/日,个体间差异巨大,20%的通勤群体碳排放量占总通勤碳排放的80.6%。本文结合发达国家的交通碳排放情况和调研的实际情况,将人均通勤碳排放量3 000g/日及以上的个人定义为显著高碳排放者,此类人群约占总样本量的11.5%;而将目前碳排放量低于3 000g/日,但选择高碳出行方式的个人定义为潜在高碳排放者。通过有序多项Logistic回归分析发现,显著的通勤高碳排放者主要是男性群体,而潜在的高碳排放者受接送孩子等家庭因素的影响更多,且多为远郊区的居民。收入和受教育水平高是通勤显著高碳排放者和潜在高碳排放者的共同特征。

Due to the increasing transport demands of urban residents,carbon emissions are growing fast and commuting has a significant impact on carbon emissions. Based on data from the2013 Carbon Consumption Survey in Shanghai,we aimed to better understand the distribution of commuter carbon emissions in Shanghai. The results show that the amount of daily individual CO2emissions is 1 213.9g and there is a huge range in emission distribution whereby the highest 20%of emitters produce 80.6% of the emissions. We define a person whose daily carbon emissions are above 3 000g as an obvious high-emission commuter,and treat people with carbon emissions below this level that adopt high-emission traffic modes as potential high-emission commuters.Using ordered logistic regression to compare these two groups of commuters,we found that the obvious high-emission commuters are mostly male and potential high-emission commuters are more affected by children and district factors. High income and educational status are common characteristics to both groups of commuter.