基于粮食安全与经济发展区域差异的土地资源优化配置——以武汉城市圈为例

Optimizing Land Resource Allocation Based on Food Security and Regional Difference in Economic Development:A Case Study in Wuhan Metropolitan

从武汉城市圈全局粮食安全的角度出发,综合考虑案例区内各县域经济发展的区域差异,采用灰色预测模型预测的人口总量结合人均粮食消费水平测算得到武汉城市圈耕地需求总量,并运用层次分析法测算各区域建设用地需求优先度,进而构建分区异步元胞自动机模型,可为基于粮食安全与经济发展区域差异的土地资源优化配置提供重要的方法支撑。研究发现,武汉城市圈土地资源区际优化配置结果能满足武汉城市圈粮食安全对耕地的需求,同时也兼顾各区域经济发展水平差异对建设用地的需求。土地资源区域间优化配置须同时考虑全区域粮食安全和经济发展水平的区域差异,为实现土地资源的合理利用和社会经济的可持续发展提供决策支持。

Land resource optimization allocation during urbanization is challenged by a contradiction between economic development and food security. It is important to fulfill these two requirements at the same time in one allocation scheme. Based on general food security of the Wuhan Metropolitan area,we examined regional differences in economic development between each county and land resource allocation. The total population(predicted using the grey prediction model) and food consumption level per capita were employed to calculate the total demand for farmland in Wuhan Metropolitan. The analytic hierarchy process method was utilized to determine the built-up land demand priority of each county. We found that compared with the base year,the built-up area in the target year in Wuhan Metropolitan increased greatly,while that of cropland,grassland and unused land decreased. The interregional optimizing allocation of land resources satisfies not only farmland demand for general food security but also built-up land demand of each county in Wuhan Metropolitan determined by regional differences in economic development. We conclude that both food security of the whole area and economic development in each county should be considered when allocating land resources. This research can help to alleviate the contradiction between farmland preservation and built-up land expansion and will provide decision support for the rational utilization of land resources and sustainable development of a social economy.