石油进口国与俄罗斯贸易合作潜力评价指标体系构建与实证研究

The Structure and Empirical Study of Appraisal Index System of Trade Cooperation Potential between Russia and Oil-Importing Countries

以国际视野角度,从资源稀缺度、经贸紧密度、产业契合度、运输可达度、战略合作度等5个方面构建评价体系总体框架,并进一步分解为12个指标,建立主要石油进口国与俄罗斯石油贸易合作潜力评价指标体系。基于利益相关者分析视角,选取中国、日本、韩国、美国等亚太地区及欧洲、独联体等共15个国家,利用Delphi和层次分析法对相关指标进行定量计算与实证分析,得到如下结论:1相对其他石油进口国家而言,中国是与俄罗斯未来石油贸易合作潜力最大的国家;2中国在资源稀缺度、经贸紧密度、运输可达度、战略合作度等方面具备明显的合作优势;3中国在石油产业技术和设备方面不及日本等国家,技术支撑合作潜力受到制约;4中国应明确本国相对其他国家所具有的优势,弥补劣势,从而使本国在与俄罗斯长期石油合作过程中处于优势地位。

We constructed an appraisal index system of trade cooperation potential between Russia and major oil-importing countries using 12 indices and five aspects:degree of resource scarcity,economic and trade compactness,industry fit,transport development and strategic cooperation.Based on stakeholder analysis we selected 15 oil-importing countries including China,Japan,South Korea,the United States of America and other countries in Asia-Pacific,Europe and Commonwealth of Independent States for this analysis. We found that compared to other countries,China is the largest potential country cooperating with Russia over oil. China has a series of cooperation advantages such as the degree of resource scarcity,economic and trade compactness,transport development and strategic cooperation. China's technology and equipment in the oil industry are not as developed as in other countries(e.g. Japan),so technical support potential for cooperation is in control. China should sustain its advantages and resolve disadvantages. Only in this way,can China achieve a long-term dominant position in cooperation. This evaluation system has room for further revision and consummation. Two indexes of industry fit cannot exactly reflect a country's true level of oil industry,and revision and supplementation according to relevant information and data are needed. Further,in order to evaluate potential cooperation systematically,we need to collect data for many years that objectively reflects coupling results of the changing index over time. We can also deduce dynamic characteristics and possible trends of oil trade cooperation potential between Russia and oil-importing countries into the future.