农业用水效率与技术进步:基于中国农业面板数据的实证研究

Agricultural Water Use Efficiency and Technical Progress in China Based on Agricultural Panel Data

通过Malmquist指数法对农业技术进步进行分解科技进步率和技术效率(即纯技术效率和规模效率),尝试去探讨广义技术进步能否促进农业用水效率的提高,并观察各部分技术进步指数对中国(全国平均)和不同农业用水量分区的农业用水效率影响程度。研究结果表明:1技术进步对中国各省区农业生产率的增长具有明显的推动作用,且主要来自科技进步的贡献;2技术进步有助于提高农业用水效率,且我国各省区农业用水效率更多受科技进步影响。对于农业用水量较高省区,农业科技进步率和技术效率对该地区农业用水效率影响显著,且作用效果都比较突出;而农业用水量中等地区的用水效率提升更多来自规模效率作用;3技术进步会引起农业水资源利用的"回弹效应",且目前表现为效率性回弹。

Improvement of agricultural water use is an important strategic move towards food and water security in China.Technical progress is a primary factor in agricultural water use efficiency.It is well-known that technical progress has broad and narrow aspects;here we aimed to determine the relationship between broad technical progress and agricultural water use efficiency.The Malmquist index method was adopted to decompose agricultural technical progress into a technological progress change index and technical efficiency change index.The technical efficiency index was further divided into a pure technical efficiency change index and scale efficiency change index.Three agricultural zones were created according to agricultural water use and cluster analysis:a high agricultural water consumption area,and medium and low consumption areas.Total factor productivity and water use efficiency were analyzed in these three areas and China.We found that technical progress promotes agricultural productivity,and technological progress is the main factor.The proportion of its contribution is 3.8％ annually to growth in agricultural productivity.Technical progress can increase agricultural water use efficiency,but more progress comes from the technological progress change index.According to the high agricultural water consumption area,the combined effect was more significant between technological progress and technical efficiency.Scale efficiency was more important in some low water consumption areas.The rebound effect (indicated by efficient rebound) can be caused by technical progress,and gross rebounds should be minimized.