粮食增产背景下松花江区农业水资源承载力优化配置研究

The Optimal Allocation of Agricultural Water Resources Carrying Capacity under Grain Production Increases in Songhuajiang

根据全国新增500亿kg粮食生产的规划,松花江区承担粮食增产任务150亿kg。在此粮食增产的背景下,对松花江区的农业水资源承载能力进行评估,计算区域农业水资源能支撑的粮食生产规模是有实际意义的。本文通过构建松花江区的农业水资源最优配置模型,采用单一线性目标函数,约束条件综合考虑了各行业水资源分配、地形地貌、农耕制度、市场调节、区域气候、流域调水、农耕状况及制度等多方面因素,模拟结果显示,松花江区最优能实现粮食产量1 043.57亿kg,其中水稻产量达304.35亿kg,玉米产量为700.92亿kg,农业水资源能够承载预期的生产目标,并且粮食产量还有提升的潜力。模型的优化结果显示,二级区的嫩江区、第二松花江区、松花江干流区和乌苏里江区农业水资源承载力有限,对于其他子区,水资源开发潜力较大,全区优化后灌溉面积增加约250万hm2。模型为区域内水资源调配,区间跨流域调水及优化农业产业结构,推进灌溉节水措施,提供理论支撑。

According to China' s national goal for increasing grain yield,the Songhuajiang Area located in northern China needs to raise yearly grain production by 15 billion kg.A quantitative approach can be used to evaluate the water resources carrying capacity in this important area.Here,based on singular linear optimized programming,an agricultural water resources optimal allocation model was found to assess the agricultural water resources carrying capacity in Songhuajiang.The model adopted a singular objective and a range of constraints were set,such as industrial,domestic and ecological water demands,topography effects,farming priority,market interference,climate,water transport among basins,arable heterogeneous conditions,and regime.The simulated results indicted that optimal total grain production of Songhuajiang could reach 104.4 billion kg,of which rice production and corn production accounted for 30 billion kg and 70 billion kg,respectively.Agricultural water resources can sustain the expected production goal,and could even contrive to exceed it by 39.5 billion kg.The results reveal that the agricultural water resources carrying capacity is sufficient in Heilongjiang,Tumenjiang,Eerguna and Suifenhe.Concerning these areas where the irrigated areas were developed as paddy land,the available amount of irrigable areas,not water availability,is the crucial limitation to production increases.The subareas of Wusulijiang,Songhuajiang main-stream Area,Nenjiang and the Second Songhuajiang Area suffer from limited water resources.More efficient irrigation techniques,optimization of agricultural structure and other management strategies are needed to enhance the optimal water utilization.The optimal water allocation model offers good theoretical support to adjust agricultural structure and guide water resources management.