基于ESDA-GIS中国入境旅游流质时空演进模式及影响因素研究

The Spatial-Temporal Evolution of Inbound Tourist Flow Quality Using an ESDA-GIS Framework

运用Theil指数、ESDA-GIS、规模-质量耦合矩阵和相关分析,从时空态势及影响因素对中国入境旅游流质(ITFQ)进行了研究。分析发现:1中国区域ITFQ总体发展水平不高,空间分布上形成了以环渤海、长三角为核心的核心-边缘格局。与入境旅游规模差异不同,地带间差异是我国ITFQ总体差异的主要原因;2从全域空间分异来看,ITFQ的空间分布呈现较强的空间依赖性和溢出效应;局域空间分异,LL区主要在西部地区,HH区主要在东部的环渤海和长三角地区,HL和LH区数目较少;3规模-质量耦合模式上,东部地区主要为高耦合发展模式,中部、西部大部分处于低耦合发展态势,非耦合型呈现出高质低量型向高耦合型、低质高量型向低耦合型发展的态势;4交通通达度、地方经济水平、旅游产业水平、旅游目的、重游率、客源结构是影响ITFQ的主要因素。

It is of theoretical value and practical significance to study tourism flow quality from a perspective of scale.Here,we examined inbound tourist flow quality (ITFQ) in China from the viewpoints of time,space,situation and regional influencing factors.We used the Theil index,ESDA,scale-quantity coupling matrix and Pearson correlation coefficient methods.We found that the overall level of ITFQ in China is not high,and its spatial distribution has formed a core-periphery structure with the core of the Bohai Rim and Yangtze River Delta.The inequality between provinces was more obvious and had a high contribution to overall regional inequality,contrasting with the inbound tourism scale in China.The global spatial differential features of ITFQ appeared spatially dependent and exhibited spill effects.The local spatial differential feature of ITFQ was of low-low (LL) type for a large proportion and mainly existed in western China;the high-high (HH) type lay in the Bohai Rim and Yangtze River Delta; and the numbers of high-low (HL) and low-high (LH) types were relatively rare.As for the scale-quality coupling model of inbound tourism,eastern China displays a high coupling development model; most of central and western China were of low coupling development; the non-coupling type was of high quality and a lower scale compared to high coupling.According to correlation analysis,transportation,economic level,tourism industry development,tourist intentions,the revisit ratio,and tourists' origins were important factors related to regional differences in ITFQ across China.