中国结构升级、技术进步与水资源消耗——基于改进的LMDI方法

Structural Upgrading,Technological Progress and Water Resource Consumption Based on a Refined LMDI Method

针对水资源消耗强度问题,本文基于改进的LMDI方法研究1997-2011年我国水资源消耗强度变化的影响因素。我们发现,总效应与强度效应具有相似的变化趋势,强度效应下降及反转是总效应下降及反转的主要原因,产业结构效应未促进用水强度下降;利用完全模型得到,各省份用水效率普遍提高,主要由于技术进步,东部发达地区是用水强度下降的主要推动因素,产业结构效应并未推动总效应下降,区域结构效应对总效应的影响较弱;利用简化模型得到,总效应下降幅度较大的省份集中于西部地区,产业结构效应与强度效应对总效应的影响与完全模型一致,东部地区产业结构效应促进总效应下降的效果好于中西部地区;改进的LMDI方法符合残差检验和时间反演检验。因此,各省份发展经济的同时,需要关注技术创新,尤其中西部地区;加快产业结构调整,也是提高用水效率的重要途径;加强发达地区对欠发达地区的支持,缩小区域社会经济差距。

According to water resource consumption intensity,a refined LMDI method was used to research factors influencing changes in China's water resource consumption intensity from 1997-2011. We found that there was a similar change between total effect and intensity effect caused by technological progress,and it was a primary reason for the decline and reversion of the total effect.However,industrial structural effect could not promote a decline in water use intensity. The efficiency of water use has improved in all provinces,mainly due to technology;the decline in China's water use intensity was mainly attributed to the effect of the developed eastern part of China. Industrial structure effect could not promote the decline of total effect and the influence of regional structure effect was weak through the complete model. Western provinces had the greatest decline in total effect;the influence of industrial structural effect and intensity effect to total effect was consistent with the complete model. The effect of industrial structural effect in eastern China on total effect was better than central and western China using the simplified model. All provinces should pay attention to technological innovation,especially in central and western China. Speeding up the adjustment of industrial structure is an important channel for improving water use efficiency.Strengthening the support for underdeveloped areas and narrowing the gap of society and economy between difference areas are also required.