博河流域气候变化及其与径流量的关系研究

Climatic Change in the Bortala River Basin and Runoff Volume

利用博尔塔拉河流域内(简称博河)4个气象代表站1960-2010年气温和降水量资料以及2个代表水文站1980-2010年径流量观测资料,进行了气候、径流量的趋势分析及突变检验,并探讨其相关关系和影响效应。结果表明:1博河流域年平均气温和年降水量呈现增加趋势,其中冬季气温上升对流域气温变化的贡献率最大;2博河年平均径流量呈波动中增加态势,并在1997-1998年发生一次由偏低期转为偏高期的突变;3流域气候变化与博河径流量的关系研究表明,其上游河源区气温与径流量的相关性比下游的大。就降水量而言,下游降水量与径流量的相关性比上游更为显著;4多元回归分析显示,当降水不变,温度每升高1℃时,博河径流量增加4.1%,而当温度不变,降水量每增加10%时,径流量增加4.6%,说明径流量对流域降水量及其气温变化的响应较为显著。

Using data concerning temperature and precipitation from four representative meteorological stations within the Bortala River Basin,Location,China from 1960 to 2010,and observational data concerning runoff volume from two representative hydrological stations between 1980 and 2010,trend analyses and mutation tests towards climate and runoff volume were conducted. The results show that the annual average temperature of the Bortala River Basin has risen;the rise of temperature in winter is the largest contribution to temperature change in the basin. At the same time,precipitation in the basin has been increasing. Runoff volume of the Bortala River is in slow and progressive increase at the rate of 0.049 × 108m3/10 a,and during the period from 1997 to 1998,a sudden change from relatively low period to relatively high period occurred. The correlation between temperature and runoff volume is larger upstream than downstream. For the correlation between precipitation and runoff volume, the downstream correlation is larger than upstream. When the rainfall amount is fixed, for every 1℃ that temperature increases,runoff volume will increase by 4.1%;when the temperature is fixed,for every 10% that precipitation increases runoff volume will increase by 4.6. This pattern suggests that runoff volume responses to changes in precipitation and temperature are obvious.