中国工业用水效率水平驱动因素分析及区划研究

Driving Factor Analysis and the Spatial Regionalization on the Industrial Water Use Efficiency in China

以全国31个省级行政区1997-2010年的工业发展规模、资源环境、工业结构、技术投入、环境以及经济杠杆等方面的指标数据为分析样本,采用主成分分析方法对工业用水效率驱动因素进行筛选分析,认为水资源条件和高耗水行业的比重对工业用水效率的提高呈现负向作用,且水资源条件约束性是持久性的,高耗水行业比重的负向作用呈现出加强的趋势;工业科技投入和技术进步对提高工业用水效率具有正向作用,且从时间上看,推进作用持续明显。根据2010年全国及各省区的主成分综合得分,在聚类分析法基础上,将全国划分成5个区域:区域Ⅰ资源压力是工业用水效率的主要驱动因素,未来效率的提升空间较小;区域Ⅱ工业产业规模和资源压力是主要驱动因素;区域Ⅲ工业产业规模是主要影响因子;区域Ⅳ工业产业规模、科技技术是主要驱动因素,用水效率具有一定的提升空间;区域Ⅴ资源压力小和技术投入较低是工业用水效率的主要影响因素。本研究可为建立工业用水效率驱动-响应关系提供区划基础。

The Principle Constituent Analysis(PCA)method was used to select driving factors of industrial water use efficiency(IWUE)in China. Eleven idices in 31 provinces from 1997 to 2010,which were obtained or calculated from statistical yearbooks including China Statistical Yearbook and National Water Resources Bulletin, were taken as statistical samples in PCA. The results show the water resources condition and ratio of high water consumption industries have negative effects on IWUE improvement. The negative effect of the water resource condition is permanent,while that of the high water consumption industries ratio rose during this period. Investment and progress on industrial technology have positive effects on IWUE improvement;the positive effect becomes more and more important. According to the comprehensive scores of the principle constituents for every province in 2010,five zones are constructed using the cluster analysis method. The IWUE levels and effective factors are different from zone to zone. In Zone One,the stress from water resource shortage is the main driving factor and the IWUE improvement potential is little. In Zone Two,water resource stress and industrial development are the main driving factors. In Zone Three,the main driving factor is industrial development. In Zone four,investment in industrial technology and industrial development are two main driving factors,and the IWUE improvement potential is larger than the other four zones. Water resource abundance and low investment on industrial technology are the main effective factors in Zone Five.