中、美、日能源价格变动对能源强度的作用效力比较研究

A Comparative Study on the Impacts of Integrated Energy Price on Energy Intensity in China,USA and Japan

理论上讲,能源价格可以通过影响能源消费结构、技术水平和产业结构对能源强度产生调节作用。基于此,本文以1965-2012年中、美、日三国时间序列数据为样本,采用多项式分布滞后模型、岭回归、路径分析、状态空间模型等方法,从直接效力、调节效力及时变效力方面对三国能源价格与能源强度关系,包括总体效力和影响路径进行对比分析。结果表明:1三国能源价格对能源强度均具有显著的负向调节作用,中国能源价格作用效力最为显著,美日两国较弱且作用相当,这说明以能源价格为核心的间接手段对于中国节能减排尚有很大的空间,而发达国家则更多地依赖于其他减排手段;2从调节路径来看,中、美两国的调节路径较为单一,而日本可以经由多种路径实现调节,这与一国市场化水平、资源禀赋、技术水平后发优势等具有一定的关联;3能源价格对能源强度的作用存在非对称性,在不同发展阶段,三国存在调控方向及调控路径上的差异,但并未表现出明显的变动趋势。

Energy prices can have a direct or indirect influence on energy intensity through intermediate variables such as energy consumption structure,technical level and industrial structure. Here,using time series data from 1965 to 2012 for China,USA and Japan we tested the relationship between energy prices and energy intensity including total effect and influencing paths,direct effect,regulatory effect and time-varying effect. We found that energy price has a significant negative regulatory impact on energy intensity,the effect in China is the most significant,and effects in the USA and Japan are weaker and values are similar. This indicates that as a regulatory tool,energy prices play a significant role in energy saving and emission reduction in developing countries,while in developed countries energy saving and emission reduction may mostly depend on other tools. The regulatory paths are quite different across the three countries since their marketization levels,resource endowment and technology levels are different. There is a single path between energy price and energy intensity in both China and the USA,while energy price can impact energy intensity via many paths. The effect of energy price on energy intensity is asymmetrical,and there are some differences regarding the regulatory direction and regulatory paths at different development stages between China,USA and Japan.