石油价格波动对中国城乡居民消费水平的差异性影响研究

Different Impact of Oil Price Fluctuation on Urban and Rural Resident Consumption Levels in China

石油价格波动对我国城乡居民消费水平的变化有重要影响。基于计量经济模型和时变状态空间模型,采用我国2000年6月-2014年5月的时间序列数据,就石油价格波动对我国城乡居民消费水平的长短期影响效力、影响时滞和动态时变效率进行了分析。研究结果表明:在长期和短期内,石油价格波动对我国城乡居民消费水平均造成正向影响,且对城镇居民消费水平的影响效力更为显著;石油价格波动对城乡居民消费水平的平均影响时滞分别为5个月和4个月;城乡居民消费水平对石油价格变动的时变弹性起伏较大,且城镇居民消费水平对石油价格变动的时变弹性在总体上要大于农村居民消费水平对石油价格变动的时变弹性。并就上述研究结论,从调整石油定价机制、建立健全预警机制和加强对居民的政策扶持等三个方面提出了政策建议。

Petroleum is becoming more and more important in the process of economic development in China. In recent years,frequent fluctuations in the oil price has had an obvious impact on China's macroeconomic situation and influenced resident consumption levels. Based on econometric and state space models,and time series data from 2000 to 2014,we measured the different impact of magnitude,time lag and dynamic variation trends in oil price fluctuation on urban and rural resident consumption levels. We found that oil price fluctuation has an obvious positive effect on urban and rural resident consumption levels. Both short and long term,the impact of oil price fluctuation on urban resident consumption level is more obvious than on rural resident consumption levels. In the long term,for every 1% of change in oil price,the urban and rural resident consumption level will change in the same direction by 4.397 6% and 3.8839% respectively. In the short term,for every 1% of change in the oil price,the impact on urban and rural resident consumption levels are respectively 0.027 8% and 0.006 6%. The average impact time lags of oil price fluctuation on urban and rural resident consumption level are respectively five months and four months. Dynamic measurement suggests that the varying- time elasticity of oil price on urban and rural resident consumption level is always greater than zero,and the varyingtime elasticity of oil price on the urban resident consumption level is greater than the varying-time elasticity of oil price on the rural resident consumption level. Based on the above conclusions,several suggestions are proposed to innovate oil pricing systems,establish early warning mechanisms and intensify policy support.