中国海水养殖的净碳汇及其与经济耦合关系

Net amount of mariculture carbon sink and its coupling relationship with economics growth of China

中国是世界第一海水养殖大国,努力促进海水养殖业经济、环境协调发展,对落实节能减排要求、共谋全球生态文明建设具有意义。本文通过估算中国海水养殖净碳汇并评价其与海水养殖经济之间的耦合程度,探讨中国海水养殖业环境效益与经济效益的协调共生关系。研究结果表明:2008—2016年全国海水养殖净碳汇保持在43万～49万t,净碳汇与海水养殖经济耦合程度低,除2010年短暂达到增长耦合状态,2009—2014年间其他年份均处于非同步断裂关系,这一阶段中国海水养殖业仍依赖数量型增长,2015—2016年进入非同步负断裂阶段,此时海洋生态文明建设初见成效,但仍缺少环境效益向经济效益转化的市场机制;从省际来看,2008—2016年除冀、琼、津的海水养殖净碳汇为负外,净碳汇贡献最大的省依次为粤、闽、鲁、辽、桂、浙、苏,其中闽、浙、苏海水养殖业净碳汇与经济间主要呈现非同步断裂关系,产业发展仍侧重于经济增长,辽、鲁则呈现非同步负断裂趋势,环境效益提升显著快于经济效益增加,而粤、桂的海水养殖业经济、环境效益则接近平衡。

Based on the estimation of the net mariculture carbon sink and the coupling index between carbon sink and economics, this study discussed the coordination between economic and environmental performance of mariculture in China. By using of both national and provincial data from 2008 to 2016 of China, this study came to the conclusions as following: although the net amount of mariculture carbon sink nationwide remained between 430 to 490 thousand tons per year, the environmental and economic performance got out of sync. Each year during 2009-2014 was in either strongly or weakly decoupling status except for 2010 when it came to increasingly coupling, which means that the growth of mariculture of China still relied on scale expansion in this period. Negatively decoupling relationship appeared from 2015 to 2016, which means that an efficient market mechanism was needed to transfer ecological profit into monetary revenue despite the preliminary achievements of the strategy of Marine Ecological Culture. Results differed between provinces. The net carbon sink kept negative in Hebei, Hainan, and Tianjin from 2009-2016. Guangdong, Fujian, Shandong, and Liaoning have made the greatest contribution to the net carbon sink. The majority of years showed decoupling in Fujian, Zhejiang, and Jiangsu, meaning the economic subsystem outbalanced environmental subsystem of mariculture in these provinces.The relationship between net carbon sink and mariculture increase did show a negatively decoupling trend, revealing the environmental subsystem preceded economic subsystem in these two provinces. The mariculture systems were basically balanced in Guangdong and Guangxi.Therefore, the key points of healthy development of marine fishery of China are to accelerate the conversion of the driving power of growth, to build a carbon sink market for marine fishery, and to optimize the allocation of marine spatial and producing resources.