中国城镇家庭乘用车物质代谢分析

Dynamic material stock and flow of Chinese urban household private cars in recent 20 years

近20年来,中国私人汽车经历了从无到有的阶段,其引起的物质存量的代谢格局无疑具有重要意义。本文采用自下而上的代谢分析方法,对中国1997—2016年城镇家庭乘用车消费的材料存量进行了动态分析,量化了家庭乘用车消费引起的材料代谢结构与格局。研究结果表明:家庭乘用车消费的物质存量快速增加,2016年城镇家庭乘用车消费户均物质存量已达466.62 kg,比1997年的2.29 kg增长了200多倍。乘用车物质代谢仍处于存量净增加阶段,2016年户均输入量是输出量的9倍以上。同时,存量的材料组成也在不断变化,普通钢材和铁的比例分别由1997年的46.72%和11.79%下降到2016年的37.96%和6.80%,逐渐被高强钢和铝金属替代。虽然目前材料输出还是以普通钢铁为主,但是随着存量的逐渐报废,高强钢和铝等材料会成为报废资源的重要组成,其资源的回收管理值得关注。由于汽车报废的滞后性,高强钢和铝材料等资源大量输出不可避免,这为汽车报废拆解行业资源管理和回收提供了新的方向。

In the past 20 years,China’s private cars have gone through a rapid growth phase from scratch,and an analysis of the dynamic material stock and flow is undoubtedly of great significance.In this study,the bottom-up metabolic analysis method was used to analyze the material stock and flow of urban household consumption of private cars from 1997 to 2016 and quantify its structure and pattern.The results show that the material stock of household private cars increased rapidly.In 2016,the average urban household private car stock reached 466.62 kg,an increase of 200 times than that of 2.29 kg in 1997.In addition,the private car material flow is in the stage of a net increase in stocks:in 2016,the average household input was more than 9 times the output.At the same time,material composition of the stock is also changing.Ordinary steel and iron ratio decreased from 46.72%and 11.79%in 1997 to 37.96%and 6.80%in 2016,gradually being replaced by high-strength steel and aluminum.Although the output of materials is dominated by ordinary iron and steel,high-strength steel and aluminum will become an important component of scrapped resources.Therefore it is important to pay attention to the recovery and management of the new material component.Considering the lag of automobile scrap,a large number of resources such as high strength steel and aluminum are inevitably exported,which provides a new direction for resource management and recycling in automobile scrap and disassembly industry.