供需错配下能源替代路径优化

Energy substitution path optimization under supply and demand mismatch

中国的产业结构升级需求和能源消费现状之间的矛盾愈发凸显,能源供给结构和需求变化的不平衡制约了能源产业对国民经济发展的支持,因此,形成一套从底层引导供给端价格形成和产能更替机制的政策工具势在必行。本文在系统视角下,基于能源间需求的价格替代机制及各能源内部的产能更替机制建立动力学模型,模拟了2017—2050年中国能源替代趋势并作为基准情景,在此基础上从供给端设定了价格、市场、成本、补贴、碳交易等情景。结果表明,基准情景下煤炭依旧是主要消费能源,且结构调整和减排压力较大,而在补贴策略和碳交易策略下,清洁能源利用水平得以显著提升。因此,必须提振天然气激励水平保障平稳过渡并降低新能源获取成本,增进能源定价机制改革,拓宽碳交易价格变化空间,以便有效达成供需协同的能源替代路径。

The conflict between the demand of upgrading industrial structure and the condition of energy consumption in China is becoming increasingly more prominent.The imbalance of energy supply and demand structure restricts the support of energy industry for national economic development.It is imperative to form a set of policy tools to guide the formation of supply-side price and capacity replacement mechanism from the bottom.Based on the price substitution mechanism of inter-energy demand and the capacity substitution mechanism within each energy source,this study simulates the trend of energy substitution in China from 2017 to 2050 and takes it as a benchmark scenario.On this basis,the scenarios of price,market,cost,subsidy and carbon trading are set from the supply side.The results show that under the benchmark scenario,coal is the main energy consumption for a long time,and the pressure of structural adjustment and emission reduction is greater.Under the subsidy strategy and carbon trading strategy,the level of clean energy utilization has been significantly improved.Therefore,we must boost the incentive level of natural gas to ensure a smooth transition and reduce the cost of new energy acquisition,improve the reform of energy pricing mechanism,and broaden the scope of carbon trading price change in order to effectively achieve a supply-demand coordinated energy substitution path.