俄罗斯与中日两国能源地缘经济合作关系评价

Evaluation on energy geo-economics cooperation relations of Russia with China and Japan

俄罗斯是世界重要的油气资源生产国和出口大国,自20世纪90年代以来,就逐渐成为中国和日本油气资源主要进口国之一。本文通过构建能源地缘经济关系评价模型,以俄罗斯远东—太平洋原油管道为切入点,对该管道建设中的1995—2016年俄罗斯与中日两国能源地缘经济合作关系进行了定量评估。结果表明:①中俄能源地缘经济合作关系指数由1995年的0.079不断攀升至2016年的0.693,日俄能源地缘经济合作关系指数由1995年的0.992下降至2016年的0.266,两条指数变化曲线交汇于2012年并呈现'剪刀差'状。②中俄能源地缘经济合作关系演变轨迹呈现出波浪式平稳(1995—2002年)、斜'N'型上升(2003—2008年)和快速上升的变化趋势(2009—2016年),2008年后,中俄能源地缘经济合作进入快速发展阶段;同期的日俄能源地缘经济合作关系演变轨迹呈现出波浪式平稳、快速下降和梯级下降的变化态势,当前日本仅为占俄罗斯原油出口量份额极少的一个出口目的国。未来,随着中俄全面战略协作伙伴关系深入推进,中俄能源地缘经济合作关系将继续向好发展。

How to evaluate energy geo-economics cooperation relations of exporters and importers have become the important research issues for geography.Russia is one of the most important producers and exporters of crude oil and natural gas in the world,and has been the main source of imports of crude oil and natural gas in china and Japan since 1990 s,which resulted in the certain structure of energy geopolitical and energy geo-economics relations among the three countries.This article attempts to build an evaluation model for evaluating energy geo-economics cooperation relations between energy exporter(Russia)and energy importers(China and Japan)in the Russian Far East-Pacific crude oil pipeline construction from 1995 to 2016.The results show that:(1)The scissor difference has been recorded between the rising energy geo-economics cooperation relations index of Russia with China and the declining that of Russia with Japan,and its intersection appeared in 2012.(2)Sino-Russian energy geo-economic cooperation relations have undergone an increasing variation,namely from wave shape variation(1995-2002)and oblique'N'shape variation(2003-2008)to rapidly rise variation(2009-2016),and Sino-Russian energy geo-economic cooperation has entered a stage of rapid development since 2008.(3)During the same period,variation of energy geo-economic cooperation relations between Russia and Japan has showed a downward trend,namely from wave variation and rapidly drop variation to fluctuating decline,and Japan has become one of the energy importers with less volume from Russia.The increasing sustainable progress of energy geo-economic cooperation relations between Russia and China will be recorded in the perspective of the Sino-Russian comprehensive strategic partnership of coordination in the future.