中国胃癌死亡率20年变化情况分析及其发展趋势预测

Analysis of mortality rate of stomach cancer and its trend in twenty years in China

目的 分析中国胃癌死亡 2 0年的变化情况 ,探讨其变化规律、可能的发展趋势。方法对基本采用同一方法处理的中国 2 0世纪 70年代和 90年代两次死因调查结果进行对比。结果 90年代胃癌调整死亡率男性增长 11.0 % ,女性增长 6.3 % ;胃癌死亡率 70年代城市略高于农村 ,90年代农村高于城市 3 7.0 % ;90年代城市胃癌调整死亡率男、女性分别下降 2 2 .2 %、2 6.7% ,而农村男、女性分别上升 2 6.4%和 2 2 .1%。无论城市还是农村 ,90年代胃癌死亡的男、女性之比均较 70年代略有上升 ,胃癌死亡危害男性高于女性、且农村高于城市。 90年代男、女性胃癌死亡率下降的省 (市 )各有 12个 ,分别占 44.0 % (12 / 2 7) ;除江苏省外 ,女性的下降百分比均高于男性 ;胃癌死亡率上升在前 6位的省 (市 ) ,男性增幅均高于女性。结论 中国胃癌死亡总的呈上升趋势 ,但在 2 7个省 (市 )中则有升有降 ;城乡之间 ,城市下降 ,农村上升 ;与世界各国比较 ,中国男、女性胃癌世界调整死亡率居于首位。 2 0年的胃癌死亡率在 3 0～ 59岁年龄组中呈下降趋势 ,60岁以上年龄组呈上升趋势 。

Objective To analyze and predict the trend in mortality rate of sto mach cancer in twenty years in China. Methods Stomach cancer mortality data c ollected from the China national survey over the period 1970s-1990s for the cau se of death were analyzed. Results The adjusted mortality rate of stomach cance r in 1990s increased by 11.0% and 6.3% for males and females, respectively. The urban mortality in 1970s was slightly higher than the rural mortality, while in 1990s the rural mortality rate was about 60% higher than the urban mortality. In 1990s, the adjusted urban mortality rate decreased by 22.2% and 26.7% for males and females, respectively. In contrast, the rural mortality rate increased by 2 6.4% and 22.1% for males and females, respectively. The sex ratio of stomach can cer deaths in 1990s, both in cities and rural areas, was slightly greater than t hat in 1970s, being more marked in the latter areas. In 1990s, the mortality rat e decreased in 12 provinces, accounting for 44% in both sexes(12/27), but the de crease was more marked for females than for males except in Kiangs province. In provinc es where the increased rates ranked top six positions, the magnitude of increase in rates was higher in males than in females. Conclusion The overall mortalit y rates of stomach cancer in the past 20 years in China presented an increasing trend, despite there were upward and downward changes in 27 provinces and decrea se in cities while increase in rural areas. Compared with other countries, the w orld-adjusted mortality rate of stomach cancer for both sexes in China ranks fi r st. The increasing trend in stomach cancer mortality was seen in the older age g roups (>60 years) while a decreasing trend was seen in the younger age groups (3 0-59 years). Aging of the population could be an important factor responsible f or the increase in mortality rates of stomach cancer in China.