FDI、贸易进出口对中国经济增长影响研究——基于VAR模型

A Study of the Impact of FDI, Import and Export on Chinese Economic Growth——Based on VAR Model

改革开放以来我国经济增长保持良好势头,外商直接投资和贸易进出口在其中起着不可替代的作用。本文基于1983-2012年的年度数据,通过构建VAR模型实证检验了外商直接投资、进出口贸易对中国经济增长的影响作用。研究表明外商直接投资对经济增长具有明显的带动作用,进出口贸易对经济增长也存在一定的带动性,但是作用不是十分明显。结合当前外资形势,对我国吸引优质外资和进出口贸易环境的优化,本文提出了相关政策建议。

Since reform and opening up, China has maintained good momentum of economic growth. Foreign direct investment, import and export are playing irreplaceable role during this time. This paper based on the annual data of 1983-2012by building the VAR model, did the empirical test of the influence of foreign direct investment, import and export on Chinese economic growth, and found that foreign direct investment had obvious driving effect on economic growth, import and export also had certain effect on economic growth but it was not obvious. On the current situation, this paper put forward relevant policy suggestions about attracting high quality foreign investment in China and optimizing the import and export environment.