我国外汇储备对广义货币供给影响的实证分析

An Empirical Analysis on the Impact of China's Foreign Exchange Reserve to the Broad Money Supply

我国近几年来外汇储备规模的大幅度增长对我国货币政策的独立性形成了巨大的挑战,运用协整检验、Granger因果关系检验等时间序列数据检验方法对外汇储备、人民币兑美元汇率和广义货币供应量M2进行实证分析,结果显示三者具有长期的协整关系,而且存在外汇储备对汇率、汇率对货币供应量的单向因果联系。对此,我国应该加大对外汇储备的管理,适当放松对汇率的管制,抑制外汇储备的快速增长,增强货币政策的独立性。

In recent years, the scale of foreign exchange reserve in our country has increased greatly, and it has caused a huge challenge on the independence of monetary policy. This paper uses the co-integration test, Granger causality test and other time sequence data-test methods, to analyze the relation among the foreign exchange reserve,RMB exchange rate against the Dollar and the broad money supply(M2). The result shows that they have a long-term co-integration relationship. There exists a one-sided casual relationship between foreign exchange reserves and the exchange rate, between the exchange rate and the currency supply. Therefore, our country should strengthen the management of foreign exchange reserve, relax properly on the exchange rate policy, restrain the excessive growth of foreign exchange reserve, and enhance the independence of monetary policy.