FDI对西安市社会稳定的影响分析

Impact on Society Stability from FDI in Xi'an City

以西安为例,分析外商直接投资(FDI)对社会稳定状况的影响。选取12个衡量社会稳定程度的指标,通过因子分析法计算1996—2015年西安社会稳定综合得分,运用格兰杰检验验证FDI与社会稳定之间的相关关系并建立两者之间的回归模型。结果表明,5%显著水平下,有99.94%的概率上认为西安社会稳定状况受FDI的影响。回归模型显示,FDI与社会稳定之间的函数关系呈倒"U"型。即引资初期,FDI对社会稳定状况有明显的积极效应。随着吸收的FDI持续上升,其对社会稳定的积极影响上升至峰值后下降,最终在此基础上进一步引进FDI,使其对社会稳定的影响转为负面。

Taking Xi’an as city the example,this paper analyzed the influence from FDI( Foreign Direct Investment) to social stability,and elected 12 indexes to measure the degree of social stability and calculate the social stability scores of Xi’ an from 1996 to 2015 by factor analysis. Furthermore,using the Granger test examined the correlation between FDI and social stability,a regression model was established. The conclusion indicated: Xi’an social stability was influenced by FDI at the probability of 99. 94% and at 5% significant level,the regression model showed that the function curve liked an inverted'U',which meant that at the preliminary stage,the increase of FDI provided a positive effect to the social stability evidently. However,when the FDI gradually increased,FDI would creat the negative effects to social stability when positive effect was at the peak.