基于熵权—云模型的流域水资源脆弱性评价与关键脆弱性辨识——以海河流域为例

Vulnerability Assessment and Key Vulnerability Identification of Basin Water Resources Based on Entropy Weight-Cloud Model——A Case of Haihe River Basin

流域水资源系统是一个复杂的系统,各流域水资源脆弱性的产生原因和表现形式具有典型的流域分布特征。根据流域水资源脆弱性的三种重要成因,从水量短缺、水质污染、灾害防御等三个方面构建有利于原因追溯和关键脆弱性辨识的评价指标体系WSPD-VI,共18个评价指标,采用熵权—云模型相结合的模型进行流域水资源脆弱性的综合评价和关键脆弱性辨识,并对海河流域进行了实证分析。结果表明,2000—2015年海河流域的水资源脆弱性状况在逐年好转,特别是2012年实施最严格水资源管理制度以来;通过对16年的关键脆弱性等级均值进行流域关键脆弱性辨识,可看出海河流域的关键脆弱性是由水量短缺引起的,其次是水质污染和灾害防御。

The basin water resources system was a complex system. The causes and manifestations of the vulnerability of water resources in each basin had typical basin distribution characteristics. According to the three important causes of basin water resource vulnerability,this paper set up the evaluation index system WSPD-VI,which was beneficial to the cause trace and key vulnerability identification in three aspects,such as water shortage,water pollution and disaster prevention. The evaluation index system included 18 evaluation indicators. This paper used the entropy weight-cloud model to evaluate the vulnerability of water resources and identify the basin key vulnerability. And then chose the Haihe River Basin for empirical analysis because the water resources situation in Haihe River Basin was the most serious. The results showed that the vulnerability of water resources in the Haihe River Basin was improved year by year during the 2000-2015,especially since the implementation of the most stringent water resource management system in 2012. This paper identified the key vulnerability by calculating the level of three key degrees of vulnerability of water resources in the Haihe River Basin for 16 years,identified that the key vulnerability of Haihe River Basin was caused by water shortage,followed by water pollution and disaster defense.