住宅市场供求均衡研究——以武汉市为例

Study on Equilibrium of Demand and Supply of Housing Market: A Case of Wuhan City

研究目的:采用供求均衡模型从住宅竣工率和住宅空置量对住宅市场的供求均衡状况进行研究。研究方法:数学模型法。研究结果:1999—2003年武汉市住宅市场存在住宅过剩,2004—2007年住宅市场供不应求,其中2005与2006年住宅结构不合理,有效供给不足。通过对武汉市住宅供给量和住宅消费需求量进行预测,结果表明2008—2015年武汉市住宅市场在合理的宏观调控政策的影响下可以实现供求均衡。研究结论:提出了消除非市场因素、增加住宅有效供给、减缓改善性需求、抑制投机性需求等为实现住宅市场供求均衡提供良好宏观环境的政策建议。

The purpose of the paper is to analyze the equilibrium of demand and supply of housing market from housing completion rate and housing vacancy quantity.Method of mathematical model was employed.Taking Wuhan as an example,the results indicate that the housing supply was surplus from 1999 to 2003.The housing demand was exceeding supply from 2004 to 2007.The structure of housing supply was unreasonable between 2005 and 2006 and effective supply was short.The housing demand and supply can be kept in equilibrium under reasonable macro-control policies through the forecast on the housing demand and supply from 2008 to 2015.It is concluded that,in order to realize equilibrium of demand and supply of housing market,the government should take countermeasures such as eliminating the non-market factors,increasing the housing effective supply,slowing down the improvement demand and suppressing the speculative demand.