改革开放以来社会舆情生态演变机制及其特点分析

The Evolution,Model and Features of Social Public Opinion in China since Reform and Open Policy

随着社会和技术的不断演进,中国社会舆情整体发展呈现出明显的规律性。根据社会舆情演变的不同特点和阶段,本研究将其演进分为三个阶段:1949—1976年唐山大地震,1976—2012年十八大的召开,2012—2015年十八大以来。在每个阶段选取若干个具有代表性的事件,分析其中技术、社会和政治力量的博弈关系。研究最后得出中国社会舆情演进的基本规律:中国社会舆情生态演变是个政治、技术、社会三方力量博弈的动态变化过程,这其中技术在不断促进民间社会力量的强大,成为社会话语力量对比的重要推手和变革力量,政治力量与技术手段的零和竞争关系决定着未来社会舆情演变的基本方向。

With the development of society and technology,the overall development of public opinion in China shows obvious regularity.According to the different characteristics and stage of social public opinion evolution,the evolution was divided into three stages;1949—1976,1976—2012,2012—2015.The paper selected some representative events in each stage,and analyzed the technology,society and politics in the game relationship.Finally the paper concluded the basic rules of public opinion in China evolution;The evolution of Chinese social public opinion is the change process of game dynamics for technology,society and politics.The technology is promoting the civil society strengthened.The zero sum competition relationship of technology and politics means to determine the basic direction of social public opinion in China.