基于系统动力学的新疆旅游业可持续发展研究

A System-dynamics-based Research on the Sustainable Development of Xinjiang's Tourist Industry

本文基于旅游可持续发展理论,从系统科学的角度出发,构建了新疆旅游业可持续发展的系统动力学模型RESET。RESET模型由建模软件VENSIM实现,主要包含旅游资源(R)、经济(E)、社会(S)、环境(E)和旅游(T)五大子系统,实证仿真的结果验证了该模型的有效性。通过多情景仿真模拟结果的分析,本文提出新疆旅游业应当加强旅游专业技术人才培养、保持适当的游客数量、扶持旅游企业健康发展、加大环境保护和旅游基础设施建设,走可持续发展道路。

Based on sustainable development theory,the RESET model,a system dynamics model of Xinjiang tourism sustainable development,is established through the point of system science. This RESET model is developed by the software tool VENSIM,which includes such five subsystems as resource,environment,society,economics and tourism. The result of the dynamic simulation verifies the validity of the model. Through the multi-scenario simulation,a best development pattern is presented as follows: the Xinjiang government should strengthen the professional and technical personnel training,maintain on appropriate number of tourists,support the healthy development of tourist enterprises,strengthen environmental protection,focus on the construction of tourist infrastructure to keep Xinjiang's tourist industry in a sustainable way development.