复杂关联情境下城市典型生命线运行风险评估研究

Research on Operational Risk Assessment of Urban Typical Lifeline in the Context of Complex Interdependence

针对城市典型生命线运行风险评估的多主体性、多诱因性以及复杂关联性,本文首先构建了具有层级网络结构的运行风险评估框架以及由风险可能性和风险后果两个维度构成的矩阵分析模型,然后提出了一种考虑复杂关联情境的运行风险评估方法,借助二元语义表示模型对2-additive Choquet积分算子进行扩展,以便实现权重信息、关联信息以及风险可能性评估信息和风险后果评估信息的处理与集结,进而获得各主体及综合运行风险评估结果。最后,应用所提方法评估了北京某样区城市典型生命线运行风险,并根据评估结果制定了针对性的风险防范措施。

With respect to the characteristics of multi-objects,multi-causes and complex interdependence in operational risk assessment of urban typical lifeline,this paper firstly constructs a framework for operational risk assessment with hierarchical network structure and a matrix analysis model with two dimensions of risk possibility and risk consequence. Then,a method for operational risk assessment considering the context of complex interdependence is proposed. Based on the 2-tuple linguistic representation model,the 2-additive Choquet integral operator is extended to realize the processing and aggregation of weight information,interdependence information,risk possibility assessment information and risk consequence assessment information. Furthermore,the operational risk assessment results of each individual and the collective result are obtained. Finally,the proposed method is applied to assess operational risk of urban typical lifeline in a sample area of Beijing,and the targeted risk prevention measures are established according to the assessment results.