我国货币供应规则与通货膨胀风险研究

Money Supply Rule and the Risk of Inflation in China

本文借助时间状态空间模型,对我国货币供应规则的基本特征进行了深入研究;在此基础上,利用频域分析方法,基于不同周期提取我国货币供应与通货膨胀相应的波动成分,进而分析我国货币供应与通货膨胀短期波动、中长期波动等之间的相关关系。本文关于中国数据的实证研究再次验证了关于货币增长和通货膨胀关系的一个命题:货币增长和通货膨胀在短期相关度较小,而在长期则高度相关。

In this paper,we use the time state space model to probe deeply into the money supply rule in China. On the basis of the above,we analyze correlations between money and prices with the help of frequency domain method. It shows that a strong positive correlation exists between money and price in the long run,but there is not a clear relationship in the short run.