房地产企业风险压力测试实证研究:限购令、房产税、新土管政策的持续性冲击影响

Empirical Research on Risk Stress Testing of Listed Companies in China

在压力测试理论和房地产企业风险管理理论的基础上,本文构建了房地产企业风险压力测试的理论体系,对我国房地产企业(上市公司)进行了风险压力测试的理论探索与实证分析。本文压力测试表明:在面对各类房地产调控政策冲击时,房地产企业(上市公司)整体抗风险能力都很弱,"限购令"政策对我国房地产企业冲击形成的风险与危害最大,影响次之的是"房产税"政策,虽然"土地管理"政策冲击导致房地产企业风险排第三,但影响程度也较大;即使在相同风险压力下,民营房地产企业(上市公司)的抗风险能力要相对优于国有的房地产企业(上市公司);在越来越严格、越来越细化、越来越有针对性的房地产调控政策冲击下,我国房地产企业的抗风险能力或风险暴露水平出现两级分化。最后,本文对我国房地产企业的风险管理提出了相应的政策与建议。

On the basis of previous theoretical studies of risk management of real estate enterprises and stress testing,a theoretical framework of risk stress testing of the real estate enterprises is constructed. According to the empirical research on data of listed real estate companies,four theoretical propositions are given in this paper. Performance of real estate enterprises in the face of impacts from various property-market tightening policies is studied. It is found that the different risk exposure level vary from different management ability,although the impact is same. The second important conclusion is that the stress ability of private listed real estate companies is better than the state-owned real estate listed companies. And the third key finding is that the influence degree of'home-purchase restriction'policy is more than'real estate tax'policy,also more than'new land management'policy. Finally,this paper advises real estate enterprises to update risk management knowledge,restructure risk organization,adjust strategy,diversify financing channels and adopt institutional operating.