货币政策传导系统协同演化机制研究——基于哈肯模型的理论与实证分析

Research on Co-evolution Mechanism of Monetary Policy Transmission System——Based on Theory and Empirical Analysis of Haken Model

货币政策传导系统是一个动态演化系统,其演化机制具有自组织协同演化特征。本文首次将协同理论引入货币传导系统演化机制的研究,对货币政策传导系统的演化机理进行协同分析,在此基础上建立其哈肯模型,并用中国货币政策传导的基础数据进行实证分析以及政策含义进行讨论。通过理论和实证分析发现,货币通道的代表变量是中国货币政策传导系统动态演化的序参量;中国货币政策传导系统中的货币通道与信贷通道具有协同机制,但协同度不强。因而只有积极推进货币通道成长以及完善信贷通道,加强货币政策传导系统内外各种政策工具的协同和配合,使其产生协同增益效应,才能有效提高我国货币政策的传导效率。

Monetary policy transmission system is a dynamic evolution system which has the basic characteristics of the self-organizing co-evolution. Synergetics theory is first introduced into research on evolution mechanism of monetary transmission system in this paper,and evolution mechanism of monetary policy transmission system is analyzed based on synergetics theory. On this basis,Haken model of evolution mechanism of monetary policy transmission system is established,and finally an empirical analysis is carried out by using the basic data of Chinese monetary policy transmission and its policy implications are discussed. Theoretical and empirical analysis show that represent variable of monetary channel is order parameter of dynamic evolution of Chinese monetary policy transmission system,cooperative mechanism exists between monetary channel and credit channel of Chinese monetary policy transmission system,but synergy degree of them is not strong. Thus only by expanding monetary channels credit channels and coordinating the various policy tools of inside and outside monetary policy transmission system for a synergic effect,can the efficiency of Chinese monetary policy transmission be effectively improved.