我国用水量变动影响因素的结构分解分析

Structural Decomposition Analysis of Impacting Factors of China's Water Consumption Changes

本文运用结构分解分析的方法研究了我国1999-2002年和2002-2007年期间用水量变动的影响因素。主要结果如下:(1)在结构层面,人均GDP*(不含居民消费,下同)的增长是导致用水量增加的主要因素,用水强度的减小是导致用水量减少的主要因素,两者的综合作用使得1999-2007年用水总量略增;在1999-2002年,用水强度减小对用水量变动的影响超过了人均GDP*增长的影响,导致用水总量减少;在2002-2007年,人均GDP*增长对用水量变动的影响超过了用水强度减小的影响,导致用水总量增加。(2)在最终需求层面,最终需求总量变化是用水量变动的主要因素,超过了用水强度减小和技术水平变化的影响;对于最终需求各组成部分,投资是用水量增加的主要影响因素,超过了政府消费和净出口的影响。

In this paper,the impact factors of the water consumption changes from 1999 to 2002 and 2002 to 2007 in China are studied with structural decomposition analysis( SDA) model. The main results are as follows:( 1) At the structural level,the increase of the GDP*per capita is the main factor of water consumption increase,the decrease of water use intensity is the main factor of water consumption decrease. The total effect of the two factors leads to a slight increase of water consumption from 1999 to 2007. From 1999 to2002,the effect of water use intensity decrease exceeds the effect of the GDP*per capita increase and the two factors lead to a decrease of water consumption. From 2002 to 2007,the effect of GDP*per capita increase exceeds the effect of water use intensity decrease and the two factors lead to an increase of water consumption.( 2) At the final demand level,the total final demand change is the main factor of water consumption change,whose effect exceeds the effects of water use intensity decrease and the change of technical level. To the components of final demand,investment is the main factor of water consumption growth,which exceeds the effects of government consumption and net exports.