“装备制造业振兴规划”的政策效果评价——基于差分内差分方法的实证检验

The Policy Effect Evaluation of the Equipment Manufacturing Industry Revitalization Planning:An Empirical Test Based on Difference-in-difference Method

装备制造业振兴规划是我国政府为加快装备制造业发展,发挥其在国民经济中基础性作用的重要战略举措。本文基于差分内差分方法,将装备制造业作为处理组,非装备部门作为控制组,从"量"和"质"两方面评估了振兴规划对于促进装备制造业发展的作用。通过动态面板模型的构建,以1999-2010年行业数据为样本,对装备制造业振兴规划的政策效果进行了实证检验,发现振兴规划的实施不仅使装备制造业的工业增加值增长率提高12.2%,而且促进全要素生产率增加4.8%。振兴规划推动装备制造业发展的机制,主要是通过固定资产投资、劳动投入和研发投资实现的,资本深化程度和企业规模并没有因为振兴规划而得到明显的改善。上述研究结论表明,差分内差分方法能够有效解决内生性问题,科学地评价经济政策的实施效果。

The revitalization planning of equipment manufacturing industry of the Chinese government is an important strategic measure to speed up the development of equipment manufacturing industry and reinforce the foundation of national economy. Based on the difference-in-difference method,the equipment manufacturing industry is regarded as treatment group,non-equipment departments is regarded as control group and then we assess the effect of revitalization planning on the equipment manufacturing industry from two aspects: quantity and quality. With the building of dynamic panel data,we carry out an empirical research with the industry data from1999 to 2010.The results indicate that the implementation of revitalization planning not only improves the growth rate of equipment manufacturing industrial added value by 12. 2%,but also makes a contribution to the 4. 8% growth of the total factor productivity. The mechanism of promoting equipment manufacturing industry is mainly realized by fixed investments,labor input and investment in research. But the capital deepening and enterprise scale are not improved significantly by the implementation of the revitalization planning. The conclusions show that the difference-in-difference method can effectively solve the problem of endogenousness and scientifically evaluate the effect of economic policy.