中国环境治理困境的挑战与策略分析——基于环境投资的内生机制

The Challenges and Strategic Analysis of Environmental Governance in China——Based on Endogenous Mechanism of Environmental Investment

作为世界最大的发展中国家,同时也是污染物排放最多的经济体之一,我国当前面临发展经济的迫切需求和治理环境的严峻挑战。本文通过建立我国的经济-能源-环境综合评估模型,在满足社会福利最大化的目标约束下,研究我国最优的环保投资路径及其对环境污染物的最优控制效果。研究结果显示:首先,随着我国经济的发展,必然会产生越来越多的污染物排放,然而当经济发展到一定程度时,这些排放物的增长速率会相对减缓;其次,在环境约束目标下,我国最优环保投资占GDP水平的比例路径呈现逐渐上升的趋势;最后,中国的经济增长虽然会造成二氧化硫、氮氧化物和烟(粉)尘等污染物的大量排放,但是随着环保投资和气候投资的增加,这些污染物排放量可以得到有效的控制。此外,基于以上结论,本文给出三点具有参考价值的政策建议。

As one of the largest developing countries in the world and one of the largest polluters in the world,China is facing urgently needed economic development and challenging environmental governance. Based on the establishment of China’s Economy-Energy-Environment Integrated Assessment Model( IAM),this paper studies the optimal pathway and controlling effect on environmental pollutants of environmental investment in China under the objective of the maximization of social welfare. The results show that: firstly,the growth rate of these environmental pollutant emissions will be relatively slow when the economy is developed to some extent although the emissions of environmental pollutants increase with the economic development of China at the early stage;secondly,under the environmental constraints target in China,the investment in optimal environmental protection is accounting for an increasing percentage of GDP;and finally,the emissions of the sulfur dioxide,nitrogen oxide and smoke dust can be effectively controlled with the increase of investment in environmental protection and climate actions. Besides,based on these conclusions,this paper offers three policy recommendations with reference value.