基于折中决策值为参考点的报童订购行为研究

Research on Newsboy Ordering Behavior Based on Eclectic Decision Value as Reference Point

较多研究表明,在不确定情况下的决策方面,前景理论不能系统地解释报童实验中的订货行为,这是由于报童的参考点被假设为零所导致的。因此,在折中决策值为心理参考点的前景理论框架下,本文对报童实验结果进行了有效的解释;并将回购和缺货惩罚因素纳入了参考点前景理论报童模型研究其最优订货量,同时发现了其报童模型的最优订货量与回购价格和缺货惩罚单调递增、与损失厌恶系数单调递减,最后通过算例分析对以上研究结果进行了验证。

Many studies have shown that in the case of uncertain decision making,prospect theory cannot systematically explain the ordering behavior in the newsboy experiments,because the newsboy reference point is assumed to be zero. Therefore,under the prospect theory of the eclectic decision value as the psychological reference point,this paper makes an effective explanation about the results of the newsboy’s experiment. And we put the repurchasing and shortage punishing into the reference point prospect theory newsboy model to study the optimal order quantity. Meanwhile,it is found that the optimal ordering quantity of the newsboy model increases monotonously with repurchasing price and shortage punishing,and decreases monotonously with loss aversion coefficient. Finally,an example is given to verify the above research results.