个人所得税改革与居民消费:基于准实验研究

Personal Income Tax Reform and Household Consumption: Empirical Study Based on Quasi Experiment

本文基于中国家庭追踪调查数据(CFPS),采用准实验方法(DID和PSM-DID)研究了2011年个人所得税改革对居民消费行为的影响。研究发现,个人所得税减免对居民消费行为具有显著的刺激效应,同时,个体户家庭因流动性约束的影响而更为敏感;分消费类型看,食品、日常和居住消费的增加较为明显,文教娱乐、医疗保健支出没有显著的变化;分地区看,个人所得税减免对东、中、西部地区居民消费均有促进,但是,在工薪家庭,作用程度依次减弱,在个体户家庭,西部地区的刺激效应最大,东部次之,中部稍弱。本文的研究结论为政府通过个人所得税减免刺激居民消费的政策思路提供了经验证据。

Based on the dataset of China Family Panel Studies(CFPS),this paper uses the Quasi experimental method(DID and DIDPSM)to study the stimulating effect of personal income tax reform in 2011 on household consumption.It is found that personal income tax reform in 2011 has a significant stimulating effect on household consumption and the effect is more significant in the self-employed households because of financial constraints.In terms of consumption type,personal income tax reform mainly increases the consumption of food,consumer goods and residence,and there is no significant change in the expenditure of education,entertainment and health care.In terms of region,tax reduction on wage significantly promotes consumption in eastern,central and western regions,but the level of stimulation is decreasing in turn;however,for tax reduction on self-employed operating income,the stimulating effect is biggest in the western region,second in the east and third in the middle.The conclusion of this paper provides empirical evidence for the government to stimulate consumption through reducing personal income tax.