国际货币政策协调与信息互通的政策效果研究

The Effect of International Monetary Policy Coordination and Information Sharing

货币政策协调过程中,对经济前景的预测信息会对央行的策略选择有决定性影响。本文将非对称信息引入两国开放经济模型中,分析并比较不同信息共享策略与协调策略对国家产出与通胀波动的影响。研究结论表明:(1)掌握信息优势的国家应当将对经济前景的预测信息分享给他国,这样经济冲击能充分反映在经济预期中,同时减少两国的产出与通胀波动;(2)在信息共享的条件下,货币政策协调能同时提高两国福利;(3)对于信息无法充分共享的情况,本文进一步给出了央行选择独立制定货币政策的条件;(4)多数情况下,更好的经济预测能力具有正外部性。以上结论启示我国央行应加强预期引导工作,并积极与国外央行和研究部门交流合作。

In the process of monetary policy coordination,the information of the economic outlook will have a decisive influence on the choice of the central bank’s strategy.In this paper,asymmetric information is introduced into the two-country open economy model,and the effects of different information-sharing strategies and coordination strategies on the volatility of output and inflation are analyzed and compared.The conclusion is:(1)the country with information advantages shall share its economic forecast with the other.In this way,economic shocks can be fully reflected in economic expectations,and output and inflation fluctuation of both countries could be reduced;(2)under the information-sharing strategy,monetary policy coordination can enhance bilateral welfare;(3)when information cannot be fully shared,the condition under which the central bank choose independent monetary policy is given;(4)in most cases,better economic forecasting ability has positive externality.The above conclusions suggest that China’s central bank should strengthen the ability of expectation guiding,and actively communicate and cooperate with foreign central banks and research departments.