企业战略影响管理层业绩预告行为吗?

Does Business Strategy Impact a Firm's Management Earnings Forecasts?

本文以2006-2015年我国A股上市公司数据为研究样本,考察企业战略对管理层业绩预告行为的影响。根据Miles and Snow’s (1978, 2003)的分类标准,本文将公司分为三种类型:防御型、分析型和进攻型企业,在此基础上检验不同战略类型的企业管理层业绩预告行为,研究结果发现,相比于防御型企业,进攻型企业更可能自愿披露业绩预告,但是管理层业绩预告的精确性更低,即更倾向于发布定性估计和区间估计;并且业绩预告的预测误差更大、准确度更低,本文的研究结论在控制内生性问题后仍然稳健。本文的研究结论表明,企业战略对管理层业绩预告行为具有显著影响,本文为监管层和资本市场参与者加深了解管理层业绩预告行为提供了重要的经验证据,并且为进一步改善我国上市公司业绩预告制度提供一定的参考和借鉴。

This paper investigates whether and how the business strategy and its categories impose influence on management earnings forecasts based on the sample of China A-share listed firms during 2006-2015.Based on Miles and Snow’s(1978,2003)strategy typologies,we divide the listed firms into three categories:prospectors,analyzers and defenders.We empirically examine the relationship between firms’management earnings forecasts and business model.Our empirical results show that the prospector firms are more likely to disclose voluntarily management earnings forecasts but with less precise(e.g.more qualitative description and range estimation)and less accurate forecasts than defender firms.These empirical results are robust after controlling possible endogenous problems.The research conclusion shows that business strategy can impose significant impact on the management earnings forecasts.This study extends current literature relating to both business strategy and management earnings forecasts and has important implications for investors and regulators to deeply understand the firms’management earnings forecasts.Moreover,this study has policy implication for improving earnings forecasts system.