房地产价格泡沫与拐点研究——基于日本东京和中国上海的对比分析

Research on Real Estate Price Bubble and Turning Point——Comparative Analysis Based on Tokyo,Japan and Shanghai,China

本文从供需角度在分析房地产价格影响因素的基础上,构建时变参数状态空间模型,测度和实证分析了日本东京和中国上海的房价泡沫。测算结果表明:2004—2018年一季度,上海市房价泡沫平均值为9. 38%。2009—2011年和2015—2017年是两轮泡沫较大的时期,期间泡沫峰值分别达到18. 29%和18. 59%。并通过脉冲响应函数分析了上海市房价泡沫拐点情况,结果发现:金融政策是影响房价泡沫拐点的短期因素,土地供给和房地产开发投资是影响房价泡沫拐点的中期因素,收入增长和人口增长的可持续性是影响房价泡沫拐点的长期因素。泡沫测算方法为政府部门判断房价泡沫提供了政策参考依据,房价泡沫拐点的研究可以为稳定房价走势提供简明的政策框架,即金融政策是标,土地政策和经济、人口政策是本,要在稳金融的前提下,通过土地、人口以及经济等政策综合施策,才能保证房价行稳致远。

Based on the analysis of the factors affecting real estate prices from the perspective of supply and demand,this paper constructs a time-varying parameter state space model,and measures and empirically analyzes the housing bubble in Tokyo,Japan and Shanghai,China.The calculation results show that from the 1 stquarter of 2004 to the 1 stquarter of 2018,the average housing price bubble in Shanghai was 9.38%.2009-2011 and 2015-2017 were the periods of two rounds of bubbles,with peak foams reaching 18.29%and 18.59%,respectively.Through the impulse response function,the paper analyzes the turning point of Shanghai’s housing price bubble.Financial policies are short-term factors affecting the turning point of the housing price bubble.Land supply and real estate development investment are the medium-term factors affecting the turning point of the housing price bubble.The sustainability of income growth and population growth are long-term factors affecting the turning point of the housing price bubble.The bubble measurement method provides a policy reference for governments to judge the housing price bubble.The study of the turning point of housing pricing bubble can provide a concise policy framework for stabilizing housing prices,that is,the financial policy is only the symptom,the land policy and the economic and population policies are the root causes.On the premise of stabilizing finance,through comprehensive policies of land,population and economy,we can ensure that house prices will be stable and far-reaching.