中国经济转轨的真实起源

The Origin of China’s Economic Transition

中国在20世纪50年代选择了斯大林发展战略,将全国的农业剩余集中到国家财政再转化为国家投资,制造出一个投资集中在重工业、大量剩余劳动力集中在农业和中间存在着轻工业投资及消费品空白的二元经济结构。从1979年开始的提高国家农产品收购价格使农业剩余从国家财政向农村剩余劳动力反向回流,使他们得到了购买重工业投资品的资金,从而使乡镇工业的就业和产值规模迅猛扩张去填补轻工业的发展空白,所以是农业剩余的反向回流在把改革前的不平衡经济结构扭转向平衡时引发了中国的经济起飞。这一反向回流的实质是中国改革前的投资来源(占GDP的33%)被改革前转移农业剩余的计划体制渠道进行了大规模的宏观再配置。它说明中国的改革是宏观起步的存量改革,而林毅夫等人主观臆想的“微观起步,增量改革和市场把增量资源配置到劳动密集型产业的中国转轨模式”颠倒了历史。它也说明中国是在其人口仍旧以农村人口为主时就放弃了斯大林发展战略,所以中国的经济转轨能从一场迅猛的农村工业化浪潮开始。但这种浪潮不会在苏联和东欧国家出现,因为它们的人口主体在它们开始放弃斯大林发展战略时已经城市化和工业化了。

In the early 1950s,China adopted the Stalinist strategy and transferred a vast amount of farm surplus into investment in state-owned heavy industry.This created a typical dual economy with heavy industry on one side,and agriculture and its vast surplus labor on the other side,and a vacuum of light industry in between.Around 1980,a rise in the state purchasing price of farm products made farm surplus flow from the state to peasants.This brought both capital and investment goods to the surplus labor and induced a sudden expansion in rural industrialization to fill the development gaps in light industry.Hence it was this reverse flow of farm surplus that launched China’s economic take-off by changing the unbalanced economic structure to a balanced one.The essence of this reverse flow was that China’s pre-reform source of investment(33%of GDP)was largely redistributed by the same system of the pre-reform era to transfer farm surplus from peasants to the state.It shows that China’s economic reform was a model involving macroeconomic changes in which the pre-reform resources were redistributed by the planned system,while Lin Yifu et al.(1994)have reversed history by emphasizing supposed microeconomic changes in which newly added resources were allocated by the market system to the labor intensive sector.It also shows that China started to give up the Stalinist strategy when the majority of its population was still rural.Thus,its economic transition could begin with a rapid expansion in rural industrialization,but the Eastern European countries could not because when they abandoned the Stalinist strategy,the majority of their population were already urban and industrialized.