服务业与中国经济:相关性和加快增长的潜力

Service Industry and China's Economy:Correlation and Potential of Faster Growth

服务业比重随着经济发展不断上升是一个普遍认可的规律 ,但是我国在上世纪 90年代初期以来 ,服务业比重在一个低水平上保持稳定 ,有悖规律。这种现象的产生 ,有我国经济增长模式、经济体制、在全球产业分工中的定位、认识和政策、统计口径等多方面的原因。本文详细考察了我国服务业的发展与内部结构的变化 ,并将我国与世界其他国家的数据进行了比较研究 ,从多个角度 ,用不同的数据样本 ,分析了经济增长与服务业发展的关系 ,并建立了一个多元回归模型分析收入水平、消费结构、城市化等因素变化对服务业今后发展的影响。预期随着我国经济的持续快速增长 ,服务业比重会在我国人均GDP上了一个新台阶后明显提高。最后提出了几点政策建议。

It is a law accepted by us that the proportion of service industry rises with the economic development. In the late 1990's, China's service industry has stopped the ascending trend beginning from the reform and opening up and kept stable in a low level, which is not consistent with the common law. The reasons include the economic growth mode, economic mechanism, the location and policy of our nation in the global production system and statistic method, etc. This paper reviewed the development and internal structure transformation of china's service industry. From different aspects, based on different types of data, this paper primarily explored the relation of economic growth and service industry development, established a multivariate regression model to analyze the influence of income level and urbanization etc. It is expected that when our country's per capita GDP goes up to a new level, our service industry proportion will rise significantly. At last, the paper brought forward some advises to promote the development of service industry.