对“经济发展新常态”的经济学解读

An Economic Interpretation of the “New Normal in Economic Development”

自2014年年末以来,"经济发展新常态"已经成为最热门的关键词;但时至今日,理论界和公众传媒并没有完全做出全面、确切的解读,既没有对过去的发展方式做出深刻的反省,也没有对转向新常态面临的阻力和障碍做出深刻的分析。"新常态"和"旧常态"并不仅仅是不同发展条件和环境、不同发展阶段的自然表现,更主要的是两种不同的发展观念、发展路子和发展方式的反映。如果发展路子不转变,不管增长速度或高或低,都不是我们期望的新常态。经济发展新常态的要义和核心是,确认传统的发展观念和发展方式已经难以为继,必须在根本转变传统发展观念和指导思想的基础上,主动放弃不科学不合理的发展路子和发展方式,为实现科学发展和走上正常的发展轨道创造条件。

Since the end of 2014,'new normal in economic development'has become a buzzword. However,till today,there is no comprehensive or definite interpretation of it either among scholars or the mass media. They fail to reflect on the old growth model in the past,nor analyze fully the obstacles and barriers we may face in turning to a 'new normal'. 'New normal'and 'old normal'not only embody different growth conditions and environment,growth phases,but more importantly,represent differences in concept,approach and model. If we fail to transform our approaches to development,the 'new normal'will not be what we have expected,however high or low the growth rate is. The essence and core of the 'new normal'lies in that we have to recognize that the traditional views of development and growth model are unsustainable,therefore we have to transform the old way of thinking and doctrines,give away the unscientific and irrational approaches,so as to create conditions for embarking on the road to scientific development and the right track for development.