金融危机背景下对外贸易发展的路径选择——基于京津冀地区对外贸易与经济增长的实证分析

The Path Selection of Foreign Trade Development under the Background of Financial Crisis: Based on the Empirical Analysis of Foreign Trade and Economic Growth in Beijng-Tianjin-Hebei Region

金融危机的爆发对我国对外贸易产业及其发展产生了重要影响。在当前经济增速不断下滑,对外贸易波动性逐渐增强的环境下,探寻对外贸易优化发展路径,重整经济发展引擎,有着重要的现实意义。笔者以京津冀地区为例,运用协整理论,并通过引入虚拟变量,将金融危机对对外贸易的短期冲击及长期影响从经济增长与外贸的长期均衡关系中分离出来,进而对具有不同外贸结构、产业结构的省(市)所受到的金融危机的影响进行分析、比较,以此得出结论:在外部经济环境不稳定的情况下,对外贸易选择以进口需求为驱动且进出口商品结构以资本和技术密集型产品为主导的外贸发展路径具有较好的抵抗外部危机的能力。最后针对进一步促进京津冀外贸协同发展提出政策建议。

The outbreak of the financial crisis had a major impact on the foreign trade industry of China and its development. In the current declining economic environment,it has important practical significance to explore an improved path of foreign trade development,restructuring the the engine of economic development. In this paper,a case study of Beijing,Tianjin,hebei based on cointegration theory,and by introducing a dummy variable,separated the short-term impact and long-term effect of the financial crisis on foreign trade from the long-run equilibrium relationship between economic growth and foreign trade. Then,the impact of the financial crisis suffered by the foreign trade industry were analyzed and compared in different provinces which have different foreign trade structures and the industrial structures. There is the conclusion: in the unstable external economic environment,foreign trade which is import demand-driven and has capital and technology intensive export commodities structure has a better ability to resist external crisis. Finally,policy recommendations for further promote the joint development of Beijing,Tianjin and hebei foreign trade.