碳交易对企业清洁技术投资的影响评估:基于实物期权的分析

The Impact of Carbon Trading on Clean Technology Investment:Real Option Approach

我国已经在7个城市开展碳交易试点,但由于碳交易体系在中国甚至全球的发展前景都不十分明确,是否应该进行清洁技术投资来减少碳排放是目前纳入碳交易试点的企业所面临的一个重要难题。笔者在分析碳交易市场对投资决策影响机理的基础上,构建实物期权模型研究碳价格波动下企业延迟投资的灵活性,采用二叉树法定量分析清洁技术投资的期权价值,进而评估碳价格波动对企业清洁技术投资的影响,以期对企业的投资决策提供参考。研究表明:初始碳价格为每吨30元,投资成本为100万元,每年碳减排放5 000吨,在此条件下,企业会马上进行清洁技术投资。但是由于碳交易体系和政策的不确定性会加剧碳价格的波动,如果没有明确的政策和更为有效的激励机制,碳交易试点不可能有效地促进企业清洁技术投资。

China has carried out carbon trading pilot in seven cities,but its prospect is not very clear. Whether to invest in clean technology to reduce CO2 emissions is an important issue for the companies to be incorporated in carbon trading pilot. The investment decision under emission trade system is more complicated and new analysis tools must be employed. Based on the description of fundamentals of emission trade system and its impact on financial decision making,the paper states an illustrative example using real option approach. The results show that if the initial carbon price is 30 RMB /ton,investment cost is 1 million RMB,5000 tons of CO2 could be reduced annually,the enterprise will invest in clean technology. However,because the carbon trading policy is uncertain in China,the clean technology investment will be deferred if there is no more effective incentive.