中国刑事诉讼量与经济增长的协整检验

Cointegration Test of Criminal Action and Economic Growth in China

依据协整理论,选取1978~2013年的人民法院审理一审刑事案件数与国内生产总值作为样本数据,利用协整分析、误差修正模型和Granger因果检验等方法,对我国刑事诉讼量与经济增长的关系进行实证研究。结果表明,我国刑事诉讼量与经济增长之间存在长期均衡关系;误差修正模型对两者之间长期均衡的调节力度较大;它们之间仅存在经济增长与刑事诉讼量的单方面因果关系。

On the basis of cointegration theory,this paper makes empirical research on our country criminal action and economic growth,adopting the quantity of the first trial criminal cases of people's court and gross domestic product from 1978 to2013 as sample data and using cointegration analysis and error correction model and Granger causality test. The results show that there is a long- term stable equilibrium relationship between criminal action and economic growth in china,and error correction model on the long- term equilibrium between them has a good regulatory role,and there is one- way causal relationship from economic growth to criminal action.