贸易赤字、债务可持续性与美国的贸易政策行为

Trade Deficit,Debt Sustainability and US Trade Policy Behavior

本文沿着贸易逆差→赤字融资→债务可持续性这一线索展开分析,在贸易逆差和美国政府的贸易政策行为之间建立逻辑联系。对于美国来说,贸易逆差能够带来巨大的好处,但是逆差的长期维持及其好处的实现依赖于美元的国际地位。维持美元的主导性国际货币地位是美国的长期战略利益所在。为此,需要通过重构全球经贸投资规则、国际分工体系和全球价值链,主导现有的国际分工利益分配格局以及未来的国际竞争态势和利益分配。在这样的政策导向下,美国政府的政策手段会越来越多地突破贸易领域,会越来越频繁地使用各种极端的非经贸政策手段。为达成更加有利于自身利益的协议或规则,单边主义和贸易保护主义成为美国政府的策略性手段,在双边经贸关系中迫使贸易伙伴做出更多让步,在多边关系中协调其他国家在全球性议题上的立场和政策。

This paper analyses the relationship between trade deficit,deficit financing and debt sustainability,and establishes a logical link between trade deficit and the trade policy behavior of the U.S.government.For the United States,trade deficit can bring huge benefits,but the long-term maintenance of it and the realization of its benefits depend on the international status of the US dollar.Maintaining the status of the US dollar as the dominant international currency is the long-term strategic interest of the United States.Therefore,it is necessary to restructure the rules of global economy and trade,the international division system and the global value chain,in order to dominate the current distribution of benefits of international division,as well as the future international competition dynamics and distribution of interests.Under such policy guidance,the US government’s policy instruments will overstep the trade field,and will use various extreme non-trade and even non-economic policy instruments more and more frequently.In order to reach agreements or rules that are more favorable to its own interests,unilateralism and protectionism have become the strategic means of the U.S.government,forcing trade partners to make more concessions in bilateral economic and trade relations,and coordinating other countries’positions and policies on global issues in multilateral relations.