中国产业结构演进的制度基础——地方政府最优土地出让行为的视角

Institutional Root of China’s Industrial Structural Evolution: A Perspective of Optimal Land-offering Behavior of Chinese Sub-national Governments

中国财政分权制度和二元土地管理制度塑造了地方政府的基本激励结构和约束条件。本文构建建设用地指标约束下地方政府的最优工业用地出让决策模型,并通过比较静态分析预测均衡条件下中国产业结构演进的趋势。在产业升级基础好的地区,产业结构将会呈现出资本和技术密集度提高的产业技术特征,产业集中度提高的产业组织特征,以及工业园区化、园区特色化的产业布局特征。而在产业升级基础较弱的地区,地方政府存在减少出让工业用地而增加商业用地供应的短期逐利动机,形成'去工业化'和商业开发过热的结构扭曲,地区间产业结构失衡的格局有可能进一步加剧。因此,中国产业结构的调整升级不仅要持续推进技术创新,还要在基础制度层面深化改革。

China’s fiscal decentralization system and dual land management system have shaped the basic incentive structure and constraints of sub-national governments.This paper studies the optimal land-offering behavior model of sub-national governments with the constraint of construction land quota,and predicts how China’s industrial structure evolves by comparative static analysis.Regions with sounding industrial basis would evolve towards the industrial technology feature of growing capital and technological intensity,the industrial organization feature of growing industrial concentration,and the industrial distribution feature of industry zone and specialized industry zone.Regions with weak industrial basis,sub-national governments have the short-sighted incentive to cut industrial land offering and increase commercial land offering,which leads to a structural distortion of de-industrialization and overheated commercial development.Consequently,the regional disparity would be worsened.Based on this study,China’s industrial upgrade need persistent technological innovation as well as deepening reform in institutions.