对邦戈茨-菲尼方法的评述、检验与灵敏度分析被引量：25

Introduction to, Evaluation, and Sensitivity Analysis of the Bongaarts-Feeney New Method

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摘要邦戈茨——菲尼于1998年提出的新方法表明孩次别平均生育年龄1年降低(或增高)0.x岁,孩次别时期总和生育率将上升(或下降)大约x％。文章对这一方法的合理性进行模拟检验与灵敏度分析。结果表明,在一般正常情况下,邦戈茨——菲尼方法的估算结果的误差率很小,而在孩次别平均生育年龄年变动幅度大于0.25岁或生育年龄分布四分位差年变动幅度大于0.1岁时的非正常情况下,邦戈茨——菲尼方法将产生超过10％的误差率。文章还讨论了邦戈茨——菲尼方法在人口政策分析中的应用。 The new method proposed by Bongaarts-Feeney (1998) indicates that if the parity-specific mean age at childbearing decreases (or increases) by 0.x year annually, the period parity-specific TFR would increase (or decrease) by about x%. This paper provides a summary description, evaluation, and sensitivity analysis of the Bongaarts-Feeney new method. Our study shows that under the normal conditions, the bias of the estimates produced by the Bongaarts-Feeney new method due to violation of its basic assumption is rather small. If, however, the annual change in the mean age of childbearing exceeds 0. 25 years old and/or if the annual change in inter-quarter range exceeds 0. 1 years old, the bias of the estimates using BongaartSrFeeney method may be large (over 10 %). We also discuss the application of Bongaarts-Feeney new method in population policy analysis concerning late childbearing program for improving child-maternal health and family welfare and reducing population growth.

作者曾毅

机构地区北京大学中国经济研究中心

出处《中国人口科学》 CSSCI 北大核心 2004年第1期68-73,共6页 Chinese Journal of Population Science

关键词戈茨-菲尼方法生育年龄总和生育率生育数美国台湾省

分类号 C92 [社会学—人口学]

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