湖南省计划生育的人口、经济效益研究

On Population and Economic Benefit of Family Planning in Hunan Province

采用"出生率趋势外推法"对1971—2002年湖南省计划生育的人口效益进行估算的研究表明,湖南省计划生育的成效是非常显著的,32年时间内共少出生人口2948.25万人,扣除死亡因素的影响,同期少增加人口2773.36万人。人口增长的有效控制,对经济发展的促进作用是非常显著的,不仅可以节省大量的孩子抚养费用,带来直接的经济效益,而且可以促进宏观经济的发展,使1978—2002年的GDP总值增长了10.48%,同期平均人均GDP提高了35.39%。

The essay estimated population benefit of family planning by the extrapolation of birth rate trend. It improved that the benefit of family planning in Hunan province is very huge. From 1971 to 2002, there are 29.48 million birth was avoided, taking out the death people, there is 27.73 million people was avoided to increase. It is prominent of population control for the development of economic, which not only would save a lot of fostering expense and bring the direct economic benefit, but also would promote the development of macro-economic, for example, from 1978 to 2002, GDP increased 10.48% and the average GDP increased 35.39% in the seem period.