新兴市场国家与地区证券市场开放增长效应的条件研究

An Analysis of the Prerequisites of the Positive Growth Effects of Stock Market Liberalization

开放国家或地区开放前国内证券市场规模的大小是决定开放增长效应是否存在的前提。合理的制度安排与良好的宏观经济环境———表现为高人均国民生产总值、高合同执行率、低通货膨胀与低国家信用风险———对证券市场开放的增长效应有显著强化作用。国际间比较显示 ,我国已基本满足证券市场开放的前提条件要求。但在证券市场开放前 ,还需要进一步扩大市场规模、强化公司治理以及修订完善相关证券监管法规 ,以降低开放风险 。

Analyses indicate significant effects of stock market liberalization on the development of the stock market, on private investment growth, and, ultimately, on GDP growth. But it may be that the positive effects of liberalization materialize only under certain circumstances or are more pronounced when certain preconditions are fulfilled. The aim of this paper is to provide new empirical evidences on the links between stock market liberalization and economic develop ment. Using annual data from 1975 to 2000, we take a sample of 27 countries that liberalized their stock markets between 1980 and 2000. For comparison, we document their macroeconomic environment in the period leading up to the liberalization. By and large, the overview indicates that stock markets in most countries under consideration have reached a noticeable size. Most of the countries liberalized their stock markets at a time when inflation was largely under control or was falling. In roughly two-thirds of the countries, increased integration of domestic economy in the world economy occurred prior to liberalization. In the growth regression, we create the dummy variable, benchmark controls and special controls suggested by theory, using panel data estimation. If liberalization has a positive effect on the respective dependent variable, we see positive and significant β-coefficients. A positive and significant δ coefficient leads us to conclude that the positive growth effects of stock market liberalization are more pronounced if benchmark control takes on a favorable value in the year before liberalization. In our study, we found that a large stock market captured by a high market capitalization ratio has an independent positive growth effect. The most significant institutional variables for the success of liberalization are the contract enforceability and the nationalization risks. Results indi cate that the benefits of liberalization are higher in countries that have improve d their institutional framework prior to liberalization. According to international comparisons, institutional standards and economic circumstances in China are high enough to attract foreign investors. With China entering the WTO, there will be more activities in opening -up the capital market (QFII, for example). To maximize potential benefits of the opening-up of the stock market, we should upscale the stock market and enhance the corporate governance and legal frameworks.