货币政策规则的理论发展与启示

Theory development and revelation of monetary policy rule

货币政策规则(尤其是"泰勒规则")自被提出以来,就深受关注,并在与"相机抉择"的政策决策原则的交锋中不断得到发展。现在的货币政策规则不再局限于货币当局设定固定的货币工具变量的狭隘涵义,而是指货币政策行为的一种指令性的向导,具体包括工具规则与目标规则。经济学家相信,与相机决策相比,规则性的政策能有效减少货币政策的动态不一致性。但是,现阶段在中国建立货币政策规则,尤其是实行通货膨胀目标规则的货币政策的条件并不成熟,而加快金融、财政和计划体制的改革,提高中央银行的独立性,增强政策的透明度,努力提高央行货币政策的一致性的信誉,则是我国的当务之急。

After put forward,monetary policy rules (esp.Taylor Rule) caught many people's attention,and whose connotations have been developing in the argument against discretionary policy.Nowadays monetary policy rules are not confined to the fixed monetary tool variables enacted by monetary authority,but a prescribed guide for monetary policy conduct,including instrument rules and targeting rules.Many economists believe that monetary policy rules compared with discretionary policy can effectively reduce the time inconsistency.It is argued that in recent years China has not such a condition that the central bank can establish its own monetary policy rules,esp.inflation targeting.In contrast,it is high time that Chinese government quickened the financial,fiscal and planned system reforms,improved the independency of the central bank,enlarged the policy transparency,and effectively increased the policy reputation of time consistency.