中国能源强度与经济结构变化特征研究

Research on change features of Chinese energy intensity and economic structure

中国经济持续增长伴随着能源强度下降的特征引起部分学者对中国经济增长和能源消费数据真实性的怀疑,因此,对中国能源强度变化特征进行研究具有重要的现实意义。迄今为止,对中国经济结构变动如何影响能源强度变化仍然缺少定量研究。本文分析了中国能源强度的变化趋势,说明其前后趋势基本上是一致、合理的。以此为基础,将能源强度变化分解为结构份额和效率份额,提出了结构份额和效率份额的计算方法,对我国能源强度变化中的结构份额和效率份额进行了定量分析,结构表明:1998-2000年间,我国能源强度下降的主要动力来自于各产业能源利用效率的提高,其中工业能源强度下降是总体能源强度下降的主要原因。

Continuing increase of the Chinese economy,accompanied by decrease of energy intensity,has aroused suspicions about the authenticity of the data of Chinese economy growth and energy consumption.Thus,it is significant to research the changes and trends of Chinese energy intensity.By far,however,few works of quantitative research have been made on how the changes of Chinese economic structure influence the changes of energy intensity.This thesis analyzes the changes and trends of Chinese energy intensity,illuminates that these changes and trends are basically consistent and reasonable.Moreover,based on the analysis,the thesis divides the change of energy intensity into structure share and efficiency share,puts forward their formulations,and quantitatively analyzes the structure share and efficiency share of the change of Chinese energy intensity.According to the analysis,decrease of Chinese energy intensity from 1998 to 2000 was mainly due to the increase of energy utilizing efficiency of the Primary,Secondary and Tertiary Industry,among which decrease of energy intensity of the Secondary Industry predominantly led the fall of the whole energy intensity.